Someone on LinkedIn asked me about this and I sent a comment…this is the more fulsome version:

Supply chains aren't my thing really, but I'd say overall that, as far as the UK is concerned, our global supply chains have held up pretty well throughout Brexit and the pandemic. So, I'm naively optimistic that common sense will prevail and accommodations will be made on all sides to keep (most) things flowing. However, it's not clear to me how nuts Putin has become, and whether all sense of pragmatism and reason has disappeared. If that's actually the case then things could get very, very difficult for all of us, very quickly.

Assuming that he can keep his hand away from the big red button, we face the prospect of many people struggling desperately with the very high oil/gas/energy prices that will inevitably be with us for some time. Building out renewables and nuclear is not going to happen overnight - it's something we should have been doing for decades (along with insulation, conservation, education etc.) But we haven't...and we don't seem to be able to move fast enough.

Lots of oil and commodity price volatility and the continuing increase in disparity of income between the 'rich' and 'poor' will require thoughtful, intelligent governance. That is something that, to my mind, is way beyond the crowd we have in place at the moment.

1.5 degrees by 2050 is beyond us now, and it will take a miracle to hold things to less than 2 degrees. If that in and of itself wasn't sufficiently catastrophic, we now find ourselves drifting into an even more parlous state because some nostalgic monster from the Cold War thinks that invading a neighbouring country or two is going to make the USSR great again. Aside from the human cost and misery, the loss of trust and engagement between nations (or rather their governments) will set us back further.

I think we're heading into the final stages of one of the 'big' cycles that Ray Dalio writes about so powerfully, and it couldn't be happening at a worse time given the global challenge we face with the climate crisis, and the global solutions we need to agree and implement to fix it.